Conflict and Change in the Era of Economic Decline: Part 1 – The 21st century landscape of conflict
Brilliant first part of a five-articles essay by Richard Heinberg on the social implications of the Great Decline. Absolute must-read. (Source: Energy Bulletin)
“High and increasing inequality is usually bearable during boom times, as people at the bottom of the wealth pyramid are encouraged by the prospect of its overall expansion. Once growth ceases and slips into reverse, inequality becomes socially unsustainable. Declining expectations lead to unrest, while absolute misery (in the sense of not having enough to eat) often results in revolution.”
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“In summary, conflict in the decades ahead will likely center on the four factors of money, energy, land, and food. These sources of conflict will overlap in various ways. While economic inequality will not itself be at the root of all this conflict (one could argue that population growth is a deeper if often unacknowledged cause of strife), inequality does seem destined to play a role in most conflict, whether the immediate trigger is extreme weather, high food prices, or energy shortages.”
US can become world’s biggest oil producer in a decade, says IEA
“The US could become self-sufficient, while 90% of Middle Eastern oil could go to China, according to new estimates…” (Source: The Guardian)
Yes and pigs CAN fly. I would like to know how much pressure was put on Fatih Birol and his team to produce this PR report for big oil. Any investigative journalist can go after the real story behind this? And if the figures are correct, get ready for more and faster climate collapse.
Read the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2012 pages.
Critical coverage of this report can be found here (more later):
US Elections: what no candidate says about energy and the economy
"What if tools of the past no longer fit the economy of the future? Economic growth, as we have known it, is being constrained by an unprecedented slowing of growth in world oil supply. America’s path to future prosperity needs to recognize and confront this new energy reality, and adapt our economy to run on a lot less oil." (Source: The Hill)
What would you expect as long as “the American Way of Life is non-negotiable”? Americans (as well as Europeans BTW) just “can’t handle the truth”.
IMF study: Peak oil could do serious damage to the global economy
One week after IMF economist Michael Kumhof attracted attention with his remarkable ideas on debt redemption and money creation in the working paper "The Chicago Plan Revisited", here he is again with another remarkable study, on peak oil this time. One scenario in his modelling predicts an 800 percent increase in oil prices in two decades. Anyone for more doom-and-gloom?
Is the IMF becoming revolutionary? And will the media and policymakers read and understand the implications of these excellent papers? I guess at least the Queen will not have to ask questions why nobody warned of this clear and present danger.
Read The Washington Post’s “IMF study: Peak oil could do serious damage to the global economy” and the full working paper “Oil and the World Economy: some possible futures”.
Degrowth, expensive oil, and the new economics of energy
"Expensive oil … does appear to be suffocating the debt-ridden, global economy, just as it is trying to recover …
Unfortunately, mainstream economists, including those in government, seem oblivious to the close relationship between energy, debt, and economy, and this means they are unable to see that expensive oil is one of the primary underlying causes of today’s economic problems. Consequently, they craft their intended solutions (e.g. stimulus packages, quantitative easing, low interest rates to encourage borrowing, etc) based on flawed, growth-based thinking, not recognising that the new economics of energy means that the growth model, which assumes cheap energy inputs, is now dangerously out-dated. When growth-based economies do not grow, household, firms, and nations struggle to repay their debts, and quickly things begin to unravel in undesirable ways." (Source: Energy Bulletin)
Excellent analysis by Dr Samuel Alexander of the links between global energy descent, rising commodity prices, the end of growth and the Great Depression.
From the conclusion of this report:
“Economic growth requires energy, especially oil. Stagnating oil production, however, is happening at a time when demand is continuing to rise. This means that oil is going to get more expensive – a consequence already playing out – but it is not clear that our economies can function on oil prices much above $100 per barrel or when total oil expenditure exceeds roughly 5.5% of GDP. The exact figures can be debated, and will be debated. But a strong case can be made that the price implications of slow-to-negligible growth in crude oil production is causing the global economy to stagnate, leading, among other things, to the inability of many households, firms, and nations to meet their debt obligations. This is causing significant economic instability around the world, and as oil prices rise in the future the situation is probably only going to get worse. This is not a happy message to convey, but in order to respond to problems effectively it is important that first their gravity is recognised and acknowledged.”
Fool me twice, shame on me: The oil industry repackages the fake abundance story (from the late 1990s)
"Only the oil industry would now have the audacity once again to peddle a story that it has gotten wrong for more than a decade as if it were brand new. Enlisting the media and its army of paid consultants, the industry is once again telling the public that oil abundance is at hand. And, what is doubly audacious is that it is promoting this tale as oil prices hover at levels more than eight times the 1999 low. Clearly, the industry is counting on collective amnesia to shield it from ridicule." ( Source: Resource Insights blog )
Good analysis by Kurt Cobb on how the pusher (the oil industry) is keeping the junkie (the economy) hooked on his stuff by offering dreams and fantasies. And how the media are working for the pusher.
Where we wrong on peak oil? Don’t think so…
Brilliant response by Rob Hopkins of Transition Culture to George Monbiot’s recent claim that were were wrong on peak oil.
"The “we were wrong about peak oil” argument only really works as something to get excited about if you are a cornucopian who also believes that free market economics and deregulation is the key to economic growth and prosperity. It also helps if you believe that climate change is a scam…"
Peak Denial
"The Peak Oil debate is not a sporting event. What matters is not which side wins, but what reality awaits us. Will we see a continuing plateau in global crude oil production? How long will it last? How big a proportional contribution to total liquids production will we see from tar sands, shale, and other unconventionals? What will be the climate impact as the world’s petroleum supply is increasingly derived from lower-grade resources? And what will be the economic impact?" (Source: Energy Bulletin)
Richard Heinberg provides a very convincing debunking of the peak oil debunkers.
Book review: Jeff Rubin’s "The End of Growth"
“The former CIBC chief economist’s lively new book also suggests that a slow economy might save the planet from Climate Armageddon.”
Good review of economist Jeff Rubin’s latest book “The End of Growth”. It is interesting to look at the European austerity versus growth debate from this perspective of the future of growth.
Dump the pump: could peak oil be voluntary?
“A small number of analysts forecast that oil production will start to fall by 2020 – not because we are running out, but because we just won’t need it. They argue that the world will wean itself off oil voluntarily, through major advances in vehicle technology. Peak oil will not be a supply-side phenomenon brought about by shrinking reserves, but by motorists buying electric cars and conventional cars with highly efficient engines.”
Excellent analysis of the state of play of electric cars and their potential to wean the world off oil by top energy journalist David Strahan.
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