I”f we want the world economy to grow by 4% per year, world oil supply will need to grow by close to 3% per year. This is more than world oil supply has grown per year since the 1970s–giving a clue as to why the world is having so much problem with economic growth now.” (Source: ourfiniteworld.com)
Another must-read article by Gail Tverberg explaining the energy limits to economic growth, a factor not taken into consideration by any of the "expert" economists trying to work out solutions for the global economic and debt crisis.
"The “we were wrong about peak oil” argument only really works as something to get excited about if you are a cornucopian who also believes that free market economics and deregulation is the key to economic growth and prosperity. It also helps if you believe that climate change is a scam…"
"The Peak Oil debate is not a sporting event. What matters is not which side wins, but what reality awaits us. Will we see a continuing plateau in global crude oil production? How long will it last? How big a proportional contribution to total liquids production will we see from tar sands, shale, and other unconventionals? What will be the climate impact as the world’s petroleum supply is increasingly derived from lower-grade resources? And what will be the economic impact?" (Source: Energy Bulletin)
Richard Heinberg provides a very convincing debunking of the peak oil debunkers.
The International Energy Agency will next week (29 May) launch an important report on the "golden rules" for governments and industry if they are to overcome serious risks and concerns (social and environmental) about the Golden Age of Gas.
There will be a special presentation of this report by Fatih Birol, IEA’s chief economist, in the European Parliament in Brussels on Wednesday, May 30, at 09h30.
Registration for this event in the European Parliament is possible via email@example.com before 29th of May. Mr Sonik, a Polish Member of the European Parliament recently wrote a heavily criticised report in favour of large-scale shale gas extraction in Europe.
On the same day (30 May), I will have the pleasure to moderate a debate on the same subject of shale gas in Europe during the annual conference of ASPO, the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas in Vienna. One of the world’s most renowned critics and expert on shale gas in the USA, Arthur Berman, will be the top speaker in this debate.
Read one of Arthur Berman’s latest papers on this issue: After The Gold Rush: A Perspective on Future U.S. Natural Gas Supply and Price (Febr. 2012)
A new internal working paper for the International Monetary Fund acknowledges physical constraints for oil production (peak oil) and foresees higher oil prices with negative impacts on economic growth. Although this working paper does not reflect official IMF policy, the fact that this institution is working on it confirms that the peak oil reality is starting to hit the financial elites of this world. Now the next step is recognising that this new reality will lead to a “post-growth” society and what this will mean for future global governance.
Read the full working paper “The Future of Oil: Geology versus Technology”.
On her blog Our Finite World, Gail Tverberg does an excellent analysis of this important working paper and comments on its weaknesses.
“Energy Commissioner Günther Oettinger has called for a pooling of national powers to set energy policy in Brussels after 2014, in an unscripted speech to European policymakers yesterday (31 January).” (Source: EurActiv)
"Europeanisation" is clearly needed but what is even more needed is a radical transformation blueprint for the post-carbon age and that is unfortunately still not available. The current EU roadmaps – although valuable exercises – are not a realistic vision for Europe’s energy future.
“Unless we want to be indentured to an energy-military-financial complex, we need to build a new infrastructure for renewable energy.”
Good article by Jon Rynn via AlterNet.
“On 15 December 2011, the European Commission adopted the Communication "Energy Roadmap 2050". The EU is committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions to 80-95% below 1990 levels by 2050 in the context of necessary reductions by developed countries as a group. In the Energy Roadmap 2050 the Commission explores the challenges posed by delivering the EU’s decarbonisation objective while at the same time ensuring security of energy supply and competitiveness.“ (Source: European Commission)
Despite some unrealistic assumptions in the modelling (price of oil in 2030-2050; economic growth predictions), the EU Commission study demonstrates that a high renewables and energy efficiency scenarios would not cost Europeans more than business as usual. With the price of fossil fuels most likely going up in the long-term as the industry has to revert to “extreme energy” (hard to extract, expensive, environmentally dangerous) and prices of renewables coming down as technological innovation progresses, the choice for Europe looks pretty clear to me.
3E Intelligency will return later with a more in-depth analysis of the five decarbonisation scenarions. Watch this space.
At the European Energy Review, Sonja van Renssen provides a great overview of stakeholder views on the upcoming EU Energy Roadmap 2050.
Her conclusion: "Despite all the modelling, it is the decisions taken by policymakers that will determine what our energy future will look like."
“Imagine a future in which Europe derives virtually all its power from thousands of windmills and other sources of renewable energy.”
The FT’s Joshua Chaffin calls the renewable energy scenario in the EU’s upcoming Energy Roadmap a "fairytale" and warns that ultimately consumers will have to pay the price for the low-carbon future. Problem is, Joshua, that continuing to rely on "extreme" or unconventional fossil fuel energy will be no less than a "nightmare" (for climate, environment and also in price we will pay for our energy). Sometimes fairy tales do come true.